Thursday, 30 October 2008

Presidential Election 2008 - Prediction Time!

Well, I am going to be away next week so I thought I would put my neck on the line and predict how the states are going to go in the Presidential election.

My Prediction is Obama to win by 375-163. This is a high prediction and I will explain the States that may prove me wrong at the end.

My Predictions
Alabama - R
Alaska - R
Arizona - R
Arkansas - R
California - D
Colorado - D
Connecticut - D
Delaware - D
District of Columbia - D
Florida - D
Georgia - R
Hawaii - D
Idaho - R
Illinois - D
Indiana - D
Iowa - D
Kansas - R
Louisiana - R
Maine - D
Maryland - D
Massachusetts - D
Michigan - D
Minnesota - D
Mississippi - R
Missouri - D
Montana - R
Nebraska - R
Nevada - D
New Hampshire - D
New Jersey - D
New Mexico - D
New York - D
North Carolina - D
North Dakota - R
Ohio - D
Oklahoma - R
Oregon - D
Pennsylvania - D
Rhode Island - D
South Carolina - R
South Dakota - R
Tennessee - R
Texas - R
Utah - R
Vermont - D
Virginia - D
Washington - D
West Virginia - R
Wisconsin - D
Wyoming - D

Potential Mistakes

This is an optimistic prediction in that I have gone with most of the Toss-Up States (using CNN and Congressional Quarterly as guides) going for Obama - this could be a tricky one with Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina in particular.

Indiana has a long Republican history, but I think that Obama can win it due to his home state being next door and the support of prominant natives of the Hoosier State such as Evan Bayh.

Polling indicates a 2 point lead for McCain in Missouri, however the state is almost infallible in voting with the national winner, so I think this lead will be erased - it's within the margin of error anyway.

North Carolina is probably the biggest risk - it has a long-standing Republican tradition, although on a State level, Democrats hold the Governor's office and 7 of the 13 House Seats. I think that it will be swept up in the Obama fever sweeping the nation, along with seeing a big turn-out from its African American population, and will vote for the Democratic Party nominee - this would be a massive coup for Obama.

Interestingly, there are a couple of States (North Dakota and Montana) which are listed as toss-ups (and with polling indicating a lead for Obama in ND) but which I have placed in the Republican column. Although these States are definitely in play, and potential support for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr may eat into McCain's support in a Nader-esque type manner, I expect both to stick with their Republican leanings.

So, there are my thoughts, I am interested to see the predictions of others - take a risk and guess how the States will fall.

And then come back post-election and laugh at how wrong my predictions were... =)

2 comments:

west-world said...

I suspect, if anything, you have been too conservative in your forecast for Obama.

Until last week, I had thought that the swing states were tightening but they now seem to have been caught in the national tide.

The problem that the Republicans might have is that their vote will not bother to turn out now that the result looks a foregone conclusion. I think this is reflected in the number of states that were previously solidly behind McCain drifting into 'leaning' or even 'toss up' territory.

If this effect continues, this may lead to some off the less likely looking states returning Obama - I'd definitely put Georgia in that category and who knows where else.

Malc said...

I'd disagree with west-world. I think it will be much tighter. Incidentally, myself (and a few others) did a prediction 6 weeks out (in September) here:

http://malcintheburgh.blogspot.com/2008/09/challenge-prediction.html

I think we'll be wrong. I think it all now hangs on Pennsylvania.

By the way, first time I've stopped by. Like it!